Fuzzy logic is easy. There are many good books on the subject; most will give you enough information to be very dangerous to the project. Don't use fuzzy logic if you can't do them in data structures.

If you really want to know about using statistics, go to the best source on the topic of simulation, LAW & KELTON (authors).

You can find them on college campuses or bookstores. While the entire book is one of the greatest subjects you could ever study, you'd only need to pay attention to generating probability distributions. That's where most people really mess up badly.

In general, beware of applications using statistical methods when coded by the statistically challenged. Better to run away.

Hire an expert consultant if you want it to work (unless of course your customer is no wiser).

-duh